In the past month, the chance of a Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump matchup has increased from “probable” to “almost certain.” Polls are almost in perfect agreement that Clinton currently holds the advantage in this contest (with Rasmussen the only pollster to give Trump any sort of lead vs. Clinton since the beginning of the year).
Many partisans and non-partisan voters remain skeptical of the two likely nominees, but as the primary season winds down, we may see both sides start to rally around their respective candidates. For that reason, I’m a bit skeptical of polls showing a close contest in states that usually aren’t competitive...I expect that many of the undecided voters will end up voting for the nominee of the party they usually support. This will take some effort on the part of both candidates and both parties. At the moment, it looks like Trump’s challenge is a bit more daunting than Clinton’s.
Now for the bad news: considering the results in Indiana, Clinton can expect to face continued tough competition from Bernie Sanders throughout the next month, while Trump’s main competitor has left the race, freeing him to focus on attacking Hillary. This gives him the opportunity to get a head start in uniting his party, and as a result we will likely see Clinton vs. Trump polls tighten (at least temporarily) between now and June.
Definitions
Safe: the favored party's candidate is extremely likely to win this state, even if the opponent wins in landslide nationally (99-100% chance the favored party will win this state in 2016)
Solid: the favored party's candidate is extremely likely to win this state, except in a wave election the other way (90-98% chance)
Likely: the favored party's candidate is likely to win this state (75-89% chance)
Lean: the favored party's candidate has the advantage, but this state could go either way (60-74% chance)
Edge: this is a tossup state, but I believe one party/candidate has a slight advantage (50-59% chance)
Current Projection
Hillary Clinton: 332 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump: 206 Electoral Votes
(270 Electoral Votes needed to win)
State-By-State Forecast Changes and Updates
We have ratings changes to report in six states—all shifting towards the Democrats’ direction. Added to the seven pro-Dem shifts in the previous month’s report, this results in a map that’s much more favorable to the Democratic nominee than it was earlier this year. If polls are to be trusted this far out, there may be further pro-Dem shifts in the future, as I still have the GOP heavily favored in some states where polling has been tight, like Mississippi and Missouri.
If each state votes as I’m currently predicting, we’d end up with the exact same map as in 2012, with all Obama states going for Clinton and all Romney states voting for Trump.
New England
Maine remains Solid Democrat — no new polling data from Maine this month, but Morning Consult has published an analysis, based on nationwide polling data, that estimates that Trump would hold a slight lead over Hillary Clinton here (42%-41%). While that might be true if a large portion of Bernie Sanders supporters are undecided on voting for Clinton as of now, I highly doubt that in November Trump would win this state in a head-to-head race vs. any Democrat.
New Hampshire moves to Solid Democrat — a new Granite State Poll (4/21) shows Clinton’s lead over Trump ballooning to nearly 20 points: 50%-31%. The Morning Consult analysis has her with a much narrower lead (43%-39%) but still outside the margin of error. Polling has consistently given Clinton the lead in New Hampshire, sometimes a wide one and sometimes a narrow one. It seems like it’s Clinton’s state to lose.
Connecticut moves to Safe Democrat — we have three new data points on Connecticut, which together indicate that the state is not likely to be competitive (although it may be relatively close in terms of the margin). First, an Emerson College poll gives Clinton an 8-point advantage over Trump (she would lead Cruz by even more, and Sanders also has large leads over both Trump and Cruz). However, a Kasich nomination would spell trouble, as he holds an 11-point lead over Clinton (and an 8-point lead over Sanders). Fortunately, the chance that the GOP will nominate Kasich appears to be very remote. Morning Consult’s analysis is slightly more bullish for Hillary, showing her with a double-digit advantage over Trump. And finally, while primary turnout may mean nothing in terms of a general election, the fact that both Clinton and Sanders earned more votes in the primary than Donald Trump should be comforting. Finally, in case all of the above isn’t quite sufficient evidence that the state is Safe, PredictWise estimates that there’s a 100% probability that the Democratic candidate will win Connecticut.
Others: Vermont, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island are all Safe Democratic states.
Mid-Atlantic
New York remains Safe Democrat — and despite Trump’s bluster about competing in his home state, it could hardly be any safer: five new polls taken in the past month all show Clinton up by 16% or more. Morning Consult concurs, showing her ahead 53%-34%.
Pennsylvania remains Likely Democrat — we have a great deal of evidence showing that Clinton is probably ahead in this state, although it’s unclear whether the advantage is large or small. One poll (NBC News/WSJ/Marist, 4/24) has her ahead 54%-39%, while two others show a close race (FOX News, 4/10; Quinnipiac, 4/06). It’s worth noting that FOX, which had the race tied at 44%, polled an equal number of Democratic primary voters and Republican primary voters; actual turnout favored the Democratic Party by a significant margin. Quinnipiac actually polled more Republicans than Democrats, but still showed Hillary ahead by 3%. The Morning Consult analysis shows Hillary ahead, but within the margin of error.
New Jersey remains Solid Democrat — a new poll (Rutgers-Eagleton, 4/18) puts Clinton’s lead at 14%, while the Morning Consult analysis has her up by just over 4%. On balance, it still seems that New Jersey is probably just shy of safe.
Delaware moves to Safe Democrat — no polls here, and we probably shouldn’t put too much stock in primary voting data, but what other evidence we do have (such as the Morning Consult analysis, which puts Clinton up by double digits; and historical voting patterns) matches a common-sense feeling that this should be an easy win for the Democratic nominee. PredictWise agrees, showing the chances of a Democratic victory in Delaware at 100%.
Maryland remains Safe Democrat — not that there was ever much doubt, but three new polls all put Clinton’s lead over Trump at 33% or better. Despite the fact that Trump did well in the GOP primary, this could be one of his worst states in the general election.
Others: DC is, of course, Safe Democrat.
South Atlantic
Virginia remains Lean Democrat — there was one poll of Virginia taken in April (Christopher Newport, 4/07), giving Hillary Clinton a 9-point lead, but with many undecideds. Morning Consult’s analysis also gives Hillary a small advantage outside the margin of error.
North Carolina remains Edge Republican — despite a new poll giving Clinton a 6-point advantage over Trump in this state (Elon University, 4/19). Morning Consult’s analysis has Trump up by 8%...I think the truth lies somewhere in between.
Florida flips to Edge Democrat — the big news here is that a new poll from AIF (5/02) puts Clinton ahead of Trump by double digits (49%-36%). On the other hand, Morning Consult’s analysis has Clinton ahead by a mere 0.2%. PredictWise gives the Democrats a 50% chance of winning Florida, which is about in line with my own expectations.
Others: Georgia is Solid Republican; South Carolina is Safe Republican
South Central
Missouri remains Solid Republican — recent polling and trendlines are rather favorable for Hillary, with the latest poll (DFM Research, 4/01) actually giving her a 2% lead over Trump. If additional polling shows similar results, there will be a ratings change here next time. Both Morning Consult and PredictWise are more bearish on her chances.
Arkansas remains Solid Republican — the Republican advantage in this state is strong, but if there’s a state where Hillary could pry away some anti-Trump Republican votes, it’s Arkansas, where her family name may still hold some value.
Mississippi remains Safe Republican — despite an encouraging Mason-Dixon poll (4/05) showing Trump ahead of Clinton by only 3%.
Others: the rest of the states in this region are all Safe Republican.
Midwest
Ohio remains Edge Democrat — a new poll from PPP (5/02) puts Clinton ahead of Trump by 3%. Morning Consult’s analysis has Clinton up by 2%, which sounds reasonable. PredictWise put’s the Democratic candidate’s chances of winning Ohio at 60%, which seems pretty reasonable too.
Indiana remains Solid Republican — according to an NBC News/WSJ/Marist poll (5/01), Trump leads Clinton by 7% in Indiana. Morning Consult thinks it’ll be a close race...their analysis has Trump ahead by less than 2% (within the margin of error). Without much evidence indicating that the state will be competitive—and no reason to think that it’s entirely out of reach for Democrats—I’m leaving it as Solid Republican for now.
Wisconsin remains Likely Democrat — two new polls (Wisconsin Survey, 4/20; Emerson College, 4/04), both have Clinton up by double digits but a little under 50%. Seems that Likely Democrat is the best fit right now, though it’s getting closer to Solid.
Iowa moves to Lean Democrat — while the pollsters have been quiet here since the Iowa Caucus, the national outlook, polling data in similar states, historical voting patterns, and the Morning Consult analysis (which puts Clinton up 45%-38%) would seem to justify moving Iowa back from the brink.
Others: Illinois is Safe Democrat, Michigan and Minnesota are Solid Democrat.
Interior West
No changes to report here. Montana, Utah, and Alaska remain Solid Republican, while Idaho, Wyoming and the Plains States from North Dakota to Oklahoma remain Safe Republican.
Southwest
Arizona remains Likely Republican — there is some good news here: a new poll (Rocky Mountain Poll, 4/26) actually puts Hillary Clinton ahead by 7% in Arizona, but with many undecideds. Arizona is definitely not looking too solid for Republicans at this point, but I’ll need some more evidence before shifting it to Lean status. Morning Consult’s analysis shows Trump ahead 46%-39%, and PredictWise is similarly skeptical, giving the Democratic candidate only a 4% chance of victory in Arizona.
Colorado moves to Lean Democrat — I’d really like to see a new poll or two here, but there’s some reason to think that Clinton has somewhat of a lead. Morning Consult’s analysis puts Clinton ahead by four and a half points. PredictWise is bullish on Democratic chances in Colorado, giving the party’s nominee an 88% chance of winning the state (better than states like Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Virginia).
Others: New Mexico is Solid Democrat, Nevada is Likely Democrat
Pacific
California remains Safe Democrat — only worth mentioning because, like New York, there are new polls showing a substantial, perhaps insurmountable, lead for Clinton (between 22 and 34 points in each of the four polls taken since late March). For the time being, I think it’s safe to dismiss any talk that Trump could put California in play.
Others: Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii are also Safe Democratic states
Electoral Vote Scorecard
Safe Democratic states: 165 EVs — CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA
Solid Democratic states: 53 EVs — ME, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM
Likely Democratic states: 36 EVs — NV, PA, WI
Lean Democratic states: 28 EVs — CO, IA, VA
Edge Democratic states: 47 EVs — FL, OH
Edge Republican states: 15 EVs — NC
Lean Republican states: 0 EVs
Likely Republican states: 11 EVs — AZ
Solid Republican states: 55 EVs — AK, AR, GA, IN, MO, MT, UT
Safe Republican states: 125 EVs — AL, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY
Things to Watch in the Coming Month
Really just two big questions in my mind, and they’re the same for each party: will the front-runner wrap up the nomination smoothly, or will there be bumps in the road? And to what extent will supporters of defeated candidates rally around their party’s nominee?
Other Prognosticators
Not much to report from the other prognosticators I’m tracking. Here are the only ones to update their predictions since early April:
The Blogging Caesar shows Clinton’s lead growing, with Arizona shifting into her column. He projects that she will win as many as 358 electoral votes to Trump’s 180.
PredictWise puts the Democratic nominee’s chance of victory at 70%, down very slightly in the past month. Like me, their preditions put Ohio and Florida as the most competitive states in the Democratic column, and North Carolina as the closest state in the GOP column.
Sam Wang isn’t looking at the Electoral College yet, but he estimates that considering the size of Clinton’s national polling lead, the probability that Trump can catch up is only 9%.
And I’m adding Morning Consult to the list...while they are a pollster, they also have published a new state-by-state analysis, using national polling data and demographic information to estimate state-by-state results (their methodology is called multilevel regression and poststratification).
Wednesday, May 4, 2016 · 7:54:13 PM +00:00 · slb36cornell
Update to note two new significant pieces of information: John Kasich is apparently quitting the race, leaving Trump as the presumptive nominee and sole remaining Republican candidate; and CNN has posted its first electoral map of the cycle: www.cnn.com/…
CNN has 237 EVs in Clinton’s column and 191 EVs in Trump’s. Battleground states include CO, FL, IA, NH, NV, OH, VA, WI, NC.