While we’re still in the midst of a hotly contested primary season, it’s time to take another look at the general election, just over eight months away. We’ll be looking mainly at the generalized picture of which states are more likely to support the Republican ticket and which the Democratic ticket, as well as a few more specific scenarios involving individual candidates.
I still consider it unlikely that either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders holds a significant electability advantage over the other, at least in terms of their ability to win in the electoral college. Certainly there are counter-arguments to be made, and logical reasons why some believe that one or the other is more electable, but to me, it’s too early to test the validity of these arguments.
On the Republican side, the picture is slightly different: I do think that two of the Republican contenders—Ted Cruz and Donald Trump—would fare somewhat worse than their remaining opponents or a “generic Republican” candidate. However, the Democratic advantage in a race vs. Trump or Cruz is, I believe, often exaggerated, and unfortunately I believe either of them would have enough of a chance at victory that they cannot and should not be dismissed as threats.
As in the previous entries in this series, this is an attempt to project how states will vote on Election Day, not a snapshot of how they would vote right now.
Definitions
Safe: the favored party's candidate is extremely likely to win this state, even if the opponent wins in landslide nationally (99-100% chance the favored party will win this state in 2016)
Solid: the favored party's candidate is extremely likely to win this state, except in a wave election the other way (90-98% chance)
Likely: the favored party's candidate is likely to win this state (75-89% chance)
Lean: the favored party's candidate has the advantage, but this state could go either way (60-74% chance)
Edge: this is a tossup state, but I believe one party/candidate has a slight advantage (50-59% chance)
In other words, in a close election, the Safe and Solid states should not be competitive, the Likely states may be competitive (and one or two might have a surprising outcome), and the Lean and Edge states should be very competitive. I do believe that regardless of who is nominated by either party, the overall popular vote will likely be relatively close (within single digits).
Closer to the election, the percentages for each category may shift a bit as the overall picture becomes clearer.
Ratings Changes
Since last report:
Virginia: moves from Edge Democrat to Lean Democrat.
North Carolina: moves from Lean Republican to Edge Republican.
Iowa: moves from Lean Democrat to Edge Democrat.
Party shifts from 2012 election:
Colorado and Florida move from the Democratic column to the Republicans
Current Projection
Democrats: 294 Electoral Votes
Republicans: 244 Electoral Votes
(270 Electoral Votes required to win)
State-by-State Forecasts
There are roughly ten true battleground states right now, but that number could shift. For instance, if Trump is the Republican nominee, some additional states on both sides could become competitive. The same might be true if Sanders is the Democratic nominee.
New England Region
Safe D states: Massachusetts (11 EVs), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3)
Solid D states: Connecticut (7), Maine (4)
Although Maine splits its electoral votes, the Democratic candidate would be favored in both districts, and very likely to carry all EVs from the state.
Lean D state: New Hampshire (4)
I see New Hampshire as one of the states where the identity of the nominee on both sides is most important. If the GOP nominates Ted Cruz, and/or the Democrats nominate Bernie Sanders, this state might shift all the way to Solid Democrat. A Clinton/Trump race would probably be Likely Democrat. However, Kasich might be favored over Clinton, and vs. Rubio, Clinton would perhaps be a very slight favorite (Edge Dem).
Mid-Atlantic Region
Safe D states: New York (29), Maryland (10), District of Columbia (3)
Solid D states: New Jersey (14), Delaware (3)
Likely D state: Pennsylvania (20)
No PA polling since October means there’s no pressing reason for a shift here. However, Pennsylvania is one of the states where Trump might actually outperform a generic Republican, by capturing some lower-income white Democrats and bringing in more “unlikely voters.”
South Atlantic Region
Lean D state: Virginia (13)
Virginia shifts from Edge D to Lean D. This state has moved away from the GOP in the last decade (at least in presidential elections), and polling doesn’t look good for them so far this cycle. Trump in particular seems terribly unpopular here.
Edge R states: Florida (29), North Carolina (15)
Surprisingly, Trump is polling at least as well in Florida as Rubio, vs. either Clinton or Sanders. I’m skeptical that he would do as well in an actual election. I’m going to leave Florida as Edge Republican for now, but if Trump is the nominee I’d expect that Florida will move to the Democratic column in the next report. Between the Democratic candidates, this is one state where Sanders might have a tougher task than Clinton, but either could win it.
Three polling companies have tested North Carolina this month, and it looks very competitive. I’m shifting it from Lean R to Edge R for now. However, if Rubio ends up as the Republican nominee, the GOP’s chances in North Carolina would be stronger.
Solid R state: Georgia (16)
Safe R state: South Carolina (9)
South-Central Region
Solid R states: Missouri (10), Arkansas (6), West Virginia (5)
Safe R states: Texas (38), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8),Mississippi (6),
I haven’t seen any reason to believe that any of these states are growing more competitive. Among the South-Central states, Missouri still looks like the most plausible option for Democrats, followed by Arkansas (for Clinton at least) and West Virginia.
Midwest Region
The Midwest could be the most critical region, particularly for Donald Trump. We could really use some fresh polling in these states, especially Ohio and Michigan.
Safe D state: Illinois (20)
Solid D states: Michigan (16), Minnesota (10)
Likely D state: Wisconsin (10)
Edge D states: Ohio (18), Iowa (6)
Iowa changes from Lean D to Edge D, mostly because Clinton hasn’t been polling well here.
Solid R state: Indiana (11)
Interior West Region
Safe GOP states: Oklahoma (7), Kansas (6), Utah (6), Nebraska (5), Idaho (4), Alaska(3), Montana (3), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Wyoming (3)
No changes here...all these states are extremely likely to end up in the GOP column. Nebraska is a special case because it could split its EVs, and indeed Obama picked up an electoral vote here in 2008. However, even the least Republican district in the state is probably Solid R at this point.
Southwest Region
Solid D state: New Mexico (5)
It wasn’t long ago that this was a swing state, but it seems to be firmly in Democratic hands now.
Likely D state: Nevada (6)
The Republican caucus results show that Trump has a base of support in Nevada, but it’s fairly clear that either Democrat would be favored here.
Edge R state: Colorado (9)
I want to see some fresh polling here before making any changes, but if Trump goes on to win the Republican nomination, I would expect that he will have trouble in this state.
Solid R state: Arizona (11)
Arizona could be worth watching, but for now, I’m going to leave it as Solid Republican. The GOP advantage here isn’t overwhelming, but it’s large enough that it would be very tough to swing the state without significantly increasing Hispanic turnout and making serious inroads among white voters.
Pacific Region
Safe D states: California (52), Washington (12), Hawaii (4)
Solid D state: Oregon (7)
No changes to report—all four of these states should be victories for the Democratic candidate.
Electoral Vote Scorecard
Safe Democratic states: 151 EVs (CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT, WA)
Solid Democratic states: 66 EVs (CT, DE, ME*, MI, MN, NJ, NM, OR)
Likely Democratic states: 36 EVs (NV, PA, WI)
Lean Democratic states: 17 EVs (NH, VA)
Edge Democratic states: 24 EVs (IA, OH)
Edge Republican states: 53 EVs (CO, FL, NC)
Lean Republican states: 0 EVs
Likely Republican states: 0 EVs
Solid Republican states: 63 EVs (AZ, AR, GA, IN, MO, NE-02*, WV)
Safe Republican states: 131 EVs (AL, AK, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE*, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY)
*Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes by congressional district. All of Maine is currently considered Solid Dem. In Nebraska, NE-02 is considered Solid Republican, the other districts and the state at large are considered Safe Republican.
Candidate-Specific Impacts
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are currently favored to win their respective nominations. Should both succeed, it will be interesting to see to what extent their parties rally behind them.
In Clinton’s case, the challenge will be to win over her skeptics, many of whom are progressives who support Bernie Sanders’s campaign. Additionally, she’ll need to win over unaffiliated voters, who view her much more negatively than Democrats do. I firmly believe that the vast majority of Democrats would ultimately support her, although there would be some holdouts, particularly in non-swing states. Unaffiliated voters would be a bigger challenge, though fortunately the GOP seems poised to nominate someone whose favorability worse than Clinton’s.
As far as Trump is concerned, he’ll need to gain the support of the Republican establishment forces that have opposed him thus far, including elected officials (he still doesn’t have a single endorsement by a sitting governor or member of Congress), hostile conservative media like FOX News and the National Review, and religious leaders and organizations that have been split between Trump, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, and other candidates. Additionally, he’ll need to bring along enough new voters to make up for his losses among those who would consider other Republicans but are disgusted by Trump’s rhetoric and personality.
Should Sanders prevail over Clinton—an outcome that remains very possible—he would need to focus on winning the loyalty of the party establishment and convincing moderate/swing voters that his economic plans are less frightening than what the Republicans are offering. Both are very doable; the former is likely to be easier than the latter.
Rubio remains a possible GOP nominee—he now has the most endorsements by far, and has probably taken over second place in the polls in recent days. He has very different weaknesses than any of the others. He might be the hardest to beat, since he is viewed less negatively than Trump or Cruz, but he’s probably also the candidate who’s most likely to stumble, and might have a hard time generating the passion and enthusiasm that the other candidates can harness.
Regardless of the matchup, I believe that many voters will look at the election as a mere chance to choose the lesser of two evils, or rather an opportunity to avert the greater of two evils. According to a recent poll (FOX News, so take with the appropriate quantity of salt), 77% of voters would be dissatisfied if Trump wins, and 74% would be dissatisfied with a Clinton victory. Sanders did only marginally better: 67% would be dissatisfied if he wins the presidency. They didn’t ask about Cruz or Rubio, but I doubt either would do any better. The key to victory for any of these candidates might lie in convincing more people that the opponent would be even worse.
For Democrats, the best news is that both Clinton and Sanders have statistically significant leads over Trump right now.
Things to Watch in the Coming Month
1. Assuming Trump continues to lead, and to progress toward the nomination, what happens to his favorability and head-to-head numbers? And will the GOP leaders start to rally around him, or will we see some sort of backlash movement materialize?
2. Polling, particularly in the Midwest/Rust Belt...are my current projections underestimating Trump’s strength in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania?
3. In the Democratic race, will things continue to heat up, and will the candidates cause damage that might be hard to repair?
4. The big picture: What’s happening to the economy? Obama’s overall approval ratings? The situation in Syria? Significant changes in these factors can impact the electoral landscape in fundamental ways that are mostly beyond the candidates’ control.
Other Projections
Blogging Caesar: Predicts Hillary Clinton 309 EVs, Donald Trump 229 EVs. Recent changes: North Carolina and Iowa shift to the Democratic column. Updated 02/22/2016.
Cook Political Report: Projects 217 EVs are Solid or Likely D, 6 Lean D, 191 Solid or Likely R, 15 Lean R (NC), and 109 Toss-Up (FL, PA, OH, VA, WI, CO, IA, NH). Last updated 02/16/2016 (moving Nevada from Toss-Up to Lean D).
Larry Sabato: Projects 247 EVs for the Democratic candidate and 206 for the Republican candidate, with 85 EVs left as toss-ups (Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire). Not updated since May 2015.
Most of the others (Nate Silver, Sam Wang, the Votemaster at electoralvote.com, etc.,) are still focused on the primaries.
If you know of any other current Electoral College predictions, feel free to mention them in the comments!
